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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
6 August 2021Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.
Expectations
In June, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 850k above analysts expectation of 690k. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 5.9% vs. 5.7% expected. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.
Analysts are expecting 870k jobs added in July. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by 0.2% to 5.7%.
Non-Farm Payroll numbers since June 2020
June: 850k
May: 559k
April: 266k
March: 916k
February: 379k
January: 49k
December: -140k
November: 245k
October: 638k
September: 661k
August: 1,371k
July: 1,763k
June: 4,800k
The unemployment rates since June 2020
June: 5.9%
May: 5.8%
April: 6.1%
March: 6%
February: 6.2%
January: 6.3%
December: 6.7%
November: 6.7%
Non-Farm Payroll numbers since May 2020
May: 559k
April: 266k
March: 916k
February: 379k
January: 49k
December: -140k
November: 245k
October: 638k
September: 661k
August: 1,371k
July: 1,763k
June: 4,800k
May: 2,509k
The unemployment rates since May 2020
May: 5.8%
April: 6.1%
March: 6%
February: 6.2%
January: 6.3%
December: 6.7%
November: 6.7%
October: 6.9%
September: 7.9%
August: 8.4%
July: 10.2%
June: 11.1%
May: 13.3%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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