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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
7 May 2021It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut.
Expectations
In March, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 916k way above analysts’ expectations of 647k. The unemployment rate decreased to 6%. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, and construction.
Analysts are expecting 978k jobs added in April as the US economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease further to 5.8%.
Non-Farm Payroll numbers since March 2020
2021 March: 916k
2021 February: 379k
2021 January: 49k
December: -140k
November: 245k
October: 638k
September: 661k
August: 1,371k
July: 1,763k
June: 4,800k
May: 2,509k
April: -20,500k
March: -701k
The unemployment rates since March 2020
2021 March: 6%
2021 February: 6.2%
2021 January: 6.3%
December: 6.7%
November: 6.7%
October: 6.9%
September: 7.9%
August: 8.4%
July: 10.2%
June: 11.1%
May: 13.3%
April: 14.7%
March: 4.4%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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