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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll announcement
1 April 2021It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.
Expectations
In February, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 379k above analysts’ expectation of 182k. The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% to 6.2%. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, health care, and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, and mining.
Analysts are expecting 647k jobs added in March, which would be the highest number since October 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 6%.
Non-Farm Payroll numbers since February 2020
February: 379k
January: 49k
December: -140k
November: 245k
October: 638k
September: 661k
August: 1,371k
July: 1,763k
June: 4,800k
May: 2,509k
April: -20,500k
March: -701k
February: 273k
The unemployment rates since February 2020
February: 6.2%
January: 6.3%
December: 6.7%
November: 6.7%
October: 6.9%
September: 7.9%
August: 8.4%
July: 10.2%
June: 11.1%
May: 13.3%
April: 14.7%
March: 4.4%
February: 3.5%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
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